Monday, January 08, 2007

Nuclear strike by samizdata?

Here's some cheery speculation in the comments on a post at samizdata which raised me from my state of post-gym, post-evening-training, decrepitude:

Today's purposeful leak of Israeli plans to take out key Iranian nuclear development sites by deployment of a low-yield nuclear weapon would bring to an abrupt end the game of chicken currently being played by Iran. If this were to happen, escalation by Iranian (Sunburn) missile attacks against tankers and US Navy ships in the Persian Gulf, and serious US retalliation, would likely lead to a Middle East in turmoil and further terrorist acts against Western nations.

It's an extremely unpleasant scenario, but not so uncertain that one can afford to ignore at least some modest personal provision.

Posted by Freeman

Freeman -- in fact, the report of the Israeli strike preparations is nothing new:

This being said, the actual fact is that an airstrike against Iran's nuclear program is our only chance to prevent a massive catastrophe in the Middle East.

If Iran does develop nuclear weapons, then given the irrational and apocalyptic obsessions of its regime, there is a considerable likelihood that these weapons would be used to destroy Israel. Thus another six million Jews would be slaughtered, partly through Western inaction, rendering the pledge "never again" the sickest bad joke in history.

But it wouldn't stop there. Israel has a nuclear arsenal too, and if its cities and people were wiped out by an Iranian attack, an all-out counterstrike would be inevitable. At a minimum, Israel's retaliation would lay Iran utterly in ruins. Almost certainly, every other high-value Muslim target within range (Cairo, Damascus, Riyadh, Mecca, and others) would be destroyed as well.

And has it occurred to you that such a Samson-pulling-down-the-temple counterstrike might not even be limited to the Middle East? Muslims are not the only great persecutors in Jewish history. At the very least, I certainly would not want to be anywhere in Germany or near the Vatican when something like this happened.

That is what is potentially waiting for us if the Iranian nuclear program is not stopped -- and I mean stopped, as opposed to useless fiddle-faddle with sanctions and UN resolutions.

Yes, a strike against the Iranian program (especially if it failed to also destroy the mullahs' regime) would likely lead to all sorts of upheavals, and gasoline here in the US going to $15 per gallon. I submit that these considerations are trivial compared to the possible consequences of inaction.

Posted by Infidel753

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